NATO in action

Washington DC, Future Terrorism Project - FDD

In an interview with BBC Radio in Arabic, Terrorism expert Dr Walid Phares said the ongoing US-led NATO operation in southern Afghanistan has military but also political goals. " Phares, who advises the Anti-Terror Caucus in the US House, said there are a number of connected objectives to the operation:

One is to secure an exclusive area of control by US and NATO forces so that the Afghan units can deploy in as many locations as possible for the other components of the plan to be implemented.

Two, is to project significant deterrence against the Taliban so that the latter would calculate the price of a counter offensive to take back the areas freed by NATO. This will force the Taliban to make a choice: using their reserves massively to counter attack or wait for US forces to withdraw later. If they counter attack, they will pay a high price and give the US forces an alibi to escalate further. If they refrain from an immediate counter move, they will give the Obama Administration what it wants, that is a local success legitimizing a beginning of the withdrawal.

Three, the operation will include field coaching for Afghan forces and a boost for their morale. Afghan units would find themselves for the first time on the offensive and not being attacked in their own barracks.

Four, the move will message the Afghan public opinion that they can count on the Alliance and also on Afghan troops in the future.

Five, the operation will send a message through the international public opinion that the efforts in Afghanistan are worth their high price. Images of deployed troops deep inside Taliban zones are supposed to affect world opinion positively.

Six, and perhaps most importantly, the operation against the Taliban aims at "convincing" them that time for talks has come, or so think perhaps the planners of the campaign. "

Phares, the Director of the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington told BBC Arabic that "the long term success of this operation and of future campaigns is not just in the military achievements on the ground, but also and mostly in what happens after military advances. How will Afghan forces behave; will there be an engagement with civil society by Government programs and NGOs? That is what would determine the long term success, concluded Phares.

Dr Walid Phares

© Copyright 2003 by walidphares.com

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