Professor Walid Phares

- Professor Walid Phares, Advisor to the Anti-Terrorism Caucus at the US House of Representatives and the Director of the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies delivered a speech to the Asian Security Conference 2010 under the theme “Asian Strategic Futures 2030: Trends, Scenarios and Alternatives.” Professor Phares’ presentation was under the title: “The Future of Terrorism: Jihadi threat in the Indian Subcontinent." The Conference was organized by the Insititute for Defense Studies and Analysis in India. The conference was attended by India's Prime Minister and Minister of Defense, members of Government and lawmakers as well as international experts. -

TEXT OF THE PRESENTATION BY PROFESSOR WALID PHARES

Thank you for extending this invitation to me to participate in the prestigious Asian Security Conference 2010, this year focusing on “Asian Strategic Futures 2030.” My remarks will focus on the concept of Future Terrorism and more particularly on the Future of the Jihadi Terror networks and their impact on the sub Indian continent. I will then make specific recommendations regarding India’s strategic role in confronting this type of terrorism worldwide.

The Global Jihadi threat

Future Terrorism is expected to witness the expansion of various types of terror networks and forces existing today, including the social class warfare (Marxist) such as Maoism in Asia or neo Trotskyism in Latin America on the one hand. On the other hand the many separatist terror networks such the PKK in Turkey, Chechen in Russia, southern Philippines, Xingian Ughiur or in Cashmir s in India are expected to continue with their attempts short of political solutions found to these issues. But beyond these forms of Terror, the widest network projected to expand and threaten most democracies around the world is undoubtedly the Jihadi Global web indoctrinated by the Salafi ideology. Other forms of Jihadi terror groups, some supported by the Khomeini ideology are also expected to expand in the Middle East and beyond, depending on the political future of the regimes that support them, mainly in Iran. Hence what democracies in the West and Asia will continue to face off with, in the next two decades, are organizations and movements identifying themselves as Jihadist (al Jihadiyyun). Al Qaeda will continue to mutate and morph as well as the organizations that espouse the same ideology. We may even see new types of Jihadi groups emerging.

Based on a totalitarian ideology and a universal agenda, the global Jihadist threat targets democracies throughout the international community in an effort to establish what they coin as “Emirates”, from the kind we witnessed under the Taliban before 2001 and the attempts we see in Iraq’s Sunni triangle, Somalia and in Waziristan. These pockets are building blocks for the sought Caliphate, the ultimate goal of all Jihadi movements and organizations since the 1920s.The Jihadist movements have been diverse and have adopted different international strategies as I have explained in my book Future Jihad: Terrorist strategies against the West. Since the 1920s the ideological evolution of Salafism led to the emergence of various families: Wahabism, Ikhwan (Muslim Brotherhood) and some circles within the extreme Deobandis. But even these three classical forms of Jihadist currents produced with time, a second then a third generation of combat Jihadists, such as al Qaeda, Salafi combat groups in Algeria, Jemaa Islamiya in Asia, the Taliban in the subcontinent and many more.

Internationalization of the Jihadists

One major feature of the Jihadist Salafi movements is that they draw their principles and doctrines from one universal ideology. Hence they are able to assist each other against dispersed and often divided foes. The Jihadi terror forces were able to single out the United States, European democracies, Russia, India, Black Africa, China and many moderate Arab and Muslim countries. It is clear that the Jihadists are coordinating worldwide and their targets are not. Worse, the Jihadist propaganda often hijacked separatist causes and transformed them into a Jihadi battlefield making it difficult on the rest of the world to identify them as Terrorists, but as resistance movement. These are the cases in Chechniya, Cashmir, Southern Philippines, Gaza, Lebanon and possibly in many other countries. The propaganda network of all Jihadi forces combined would isolate the United States and fight it on particular issues, rather than isolate an Arab or Muslim Government on another issue, as in Pakistan, Nigeria or Egypt. Then the Jihadi machine would demonize India on the Kashmir issue and try to isolate New Delhi on the matter.

Internationalization of the confrontation against the Jihadi terror

The central question in today’s global terrorism thinking is about the internationalization of the confrontation with the Jihadi forces operating in many countries. Salafi and other Takfiri groups and their radicalization network worldwide aim at confronting their own foes, mostly democracies, one at a time and with various strategies. In our assessment we are proposing a global response and counter strategy integrating the resources of all democracies and eventually of all targeted countries by al Qaeda and its allies. Hence future global strategies to contain and defeat the global Jihadi network must be based on the following suggested principles:

a. That the main targeted Western democracies and the other democracies around the world, including India and Russia, would develop a joint platform on all levels ranging from security, counter terrorism to counter ideology which could serve as a basis for the isolation of the threat instead of being isolated by it as I argued in my book The Confrontation: Winning the War against Future Jihad

b. That regional coordination must also develop such as in Africa, in the Muslim world and in Latin America, to coordinate efforts based on the particularity of each region.

c. That the sum of all these platforms comes under an international platform of confrontation with the Jihadist forces, hopefully under a UN umbrella. If the main members of the Security Council are supportive of the isolation of this ideological threat nothing can impede the United Nations from taking the lead in the confrontation of terror instead of having specific great powers or isolated countries fight it alone.

The Indian sub continent

In this regard, the confrontation in the sub Indian continent between al Qaeda, the Taliban and their allies on the one hand and the three democracies they target, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, on the other hand must be reevaluated in terms of international cooperation against the Jihadi threat. I am suggesting the idea that a regional system should be established to integrate the struggle against all Jihadi forces in the subcontinent. There needs to be a separation between the ethnic and territorial questions from the fight against Terrorism. Once that distinction is made the possibilities of internationalization of counter terrorism will be high. Jihadists based in any country of the subcontinent must not be given legitimacy by any Government on the ground of a local ethnic issue. Jihadi forces must be confronted collectively, while diplomacy and international mediations assist in solving the local problems.

India particular role

The West can help all players in the subcontinent coming under internationalization of the struggle against Jihadi terror. But India has enough international credibility to help the West and other democracies in building an international basis for this counter Jihadi platform. There are initiatives India can take within the Third World and international organizations which can weaken the Jihadist propaganda against India’s partners worldwide. India can help build this international platform because of its unique history in the non aligned world so that the West and other democracies can in return help India fight against its Jihadi threats locally. India must play a strategic and international role in the said campaign worldwide. Some of that role must be on a military and security level, but India can also play a significant role in diplomatic and political realms to consolidate the international campaign.

Conclusion

Hence in conclusion, I advance the following suggestions to be considered by your forum

1. That Indian Think Tanks would initiate a series of bilateral seminars and discussions with Think Tanks and research centers in the various regions potentially involved in such a future strategy, including with the United States, Europe, Russia, Sub Saharan Africa and moderate Arab and Muslim states.

2. That the results of these regional workshops would be integrated under an international framework where India could play an important role

3. That such an international framework or document would be submitted to the United States by all member states whose think tanks have been involved.

Evidently such architecture demands efforts, resources and good architects. I do believe based on my work with groups and lawmakers interested it he issue worldwide that interest in finding a new global strategy to confront the growing global threat is very high

Thank you

Professor Walid Phares

1630h-1815h: Session VII

Theme : Society, Identity, Religion and Governance

Chair: Prof. Zoya Hasan

Paper I: Social Trends of the Future: Prof. T.K. Oomen

Paper II: Identity Politics and Nationalism: Prof. Catarina Kinnvall

Paper III: Religious Trends in Asia and Extremism: Dr. Bilveer Singh

Paper IV: The Future of Terrorism: Dr. Walid Phares

IDSA Headquarters

India's Prime Minister

India's Defense Miniter

© Copyright 2003 by walidphares.com

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